000
WTPZ43 KNHC 181744
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
 
RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MANUEL
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO RAISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST
INTENSITY.  BASED ON SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND
SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.  GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR
AND WARM WATERS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
INNER CORE INTERACTS WITH LAND.  SINCE THE UPDATED INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MANUEL TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN
IT NEARS THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO.
 
MANUEL CONTINUES MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER
FORECAST.  THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS MANUEL MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS
THAT NOW TAKES MANUEL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED IF SOME
OF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1800Z 23.6N 107.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN