000
WTPZ43 KNHC 172032
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION.  A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE
DATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL.  THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A
COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
EARLIER TODAY.  MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.  MANUEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT.  A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN
WESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE
TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN