000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160834
TCDEP3
 
REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. 
THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS.  THE
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS
AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.

EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
SO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH 
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG