000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160255
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
MANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6
HOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.
THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
MINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
 
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE
SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
THE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...
WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI