000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151450
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
DENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS
SHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE
LATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60
KT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE. 
 
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE
LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
WITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS
DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  

ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF
LANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS
A CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN