000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150841
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.  IN FACT...THE MOST
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE MAY NOT BE QUITE
AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS LAST EVENING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE EAST LAST EVENING...MANUEL HAS TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7 KT...TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  MANUEL IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOON...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFTER LANDFALL...
KEEPING THE CENTER OF MANUEL OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY
OR TWO.

SINCE THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IS QUICKLY DWINDLING.  NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE CENTER
HAS REACHED LAND.  RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...BUT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

ASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
WIND FIELD OF MANUEL HAS DETACHED FROM THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL
STORM AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO ISOLATE THE
STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION AND WAVE FIELD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 17.9N 102.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 18.9N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0600Z 19.9N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1800Z 20.6N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH