000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF MANUEL HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ALL SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOME STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL GIVEN THE WARM WATER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. MANUEL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND IT COULD EVEN DISSIPATE BY 36H. THE STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFTWARD...NOW 345/6. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...CAUSING MANUEL TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AND ACCELERATE. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL MIGHT MAKE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AGAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME. THE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED GREATLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT/SHIP DATA... ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS/SEAS ARE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER- SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.7N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.1N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 20.3N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE