000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080235
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013
 
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. WHILE AN EYE IS NOT SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...A
2134Z AMSR-2 PASS FROM THE GCOM-W1 SATELLITE SHOWED A SMALL MID-
LEVEL EYE. HOWEVER...THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED AN
EASTWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT CONSISTENT WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS OF
4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
AFTER THAT TIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATERS...BUT IN A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT
IN SLOW WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09. A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF HENRIETTE WILL RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A
SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT HAS
BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 17.0N 136.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 17.4N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 17.4N 139.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 17.2N 141.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 16.7N 144.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 13.0N 162.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN