000
WTPZ43 KNHC 071434
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS.  IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH
MORE STABLE AIR. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL 
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND
36 HOURS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING HENRIETTE TO MOVE ON MORE
WESTERLY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TURN. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 16.2N 134.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 16.8N 136.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 17.2N 142.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 15.0N 152.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 13.5N 159.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA