000
WTPZ43 KNHC 070235
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013
 
WHILE THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE 
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES. SOME
LIMITED STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT TIME MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS
THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT TIME. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09...AS HENRIETTE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND A MOTION TO THE SOUTH
OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LATEST
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 15.1N 133.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 15.8N 134.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 16.6N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 17.1N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 16.3N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 15.5N 148.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 15.0N 153.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN