000
WTPZ43 KNHC 062032
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013
 
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SMALL HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A SMALL
EYE BECOMING EVIDENT.  A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO HAVE CLEARLY SHOWN A CONTRACTING EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN
THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT
AND 85 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...SLIGHTLY
COOLER SSTS AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS...
THEN LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS MODEL
THERAFTER.
 
HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT
ABOUT 9 KT TODAY.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS A
RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
SOME FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES.  THE NHC TRACK DURING THIS TIME
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF
AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS
LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT IT
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THOSE
TIMES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 14.7N 132.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 15.5N 133.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 16.4N 135.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 17.3N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 16.8N 143.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 16.0N 147.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 15.5N 152.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN