000
WTPZ43 KNHC 060231
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
HENRIETTE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS EVENING WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE GROWING NEAR THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE
DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...WITH WHAT RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL PRESENT ON THE LATEST
PASSES.  DUE TO THE INCREASE IN INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF THE STORM FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...
HENRIETTE WILL BE HEADING INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND ACROSS COOLER
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELYING ON A BLEND OF THE
TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE LATEST MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT HENRIETTE IS MOVING FASTER AND
HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE AFTER THAT TIME...CAUSING
THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN A FEW DAYS.  THIS SCENARIO
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 13.5N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 14.4N 131.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 15.6N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 16.6N 134.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 17.3N 136.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 17.9N 139.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 17.1N 144.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE