000
WTPZ43 KNHC 052034
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE...
WITH RECENT HINTS OF AN EYE.  AN EARLIER 1414 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALED A MID-LEVEL EYE WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
RING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS AHEAD OF
HENRIETTE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.  IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...HENRIETTE
WILL BE CROSSING A TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS THAT WILL LIKELY SLOW OR
HALT THE STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE PERIOD... COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  IF
HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SSTS AND LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED
BELOW.

HENRIETTE HAS MADE ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. IT
HAS ALSO GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8
KT.  HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ONCE
AGAIN TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 48
HOURS...THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD
ONCE AGAIN.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
WESTWARD IN THE BRISK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 12.8N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 14.8N 131.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 16.7N 134.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN