000
WTPZ43 KNHC 050858
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF
HENRIETTE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ALSO REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0522Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS THAT SHOWED
40-KT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE 34-KT
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT WIND DATA.

THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL WOBBLES IN THE MOTION OF HENRIETTE DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON
A WESTWARD COURSE OF 275/06 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
BETWEEN 135W-140W LONGITUDE. AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCING THIS WEAKNESS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 3-5 AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A NOTICEABLE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.

HENRIETTE APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO AT LEAST A TYPICAL RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 175 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AND MOVING CLOSER TO HENRIETTE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THAT SYSTEM SHOULD MORPH INTO AN OUTER RAIN BAND IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ALLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY DIVERTED EQUATORIAL INFLOW TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THIS INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE
AIR...COUPLED WITH 28C SSTS...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD INITIATE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER
TODAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS INCREASED AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...BUT IS
BELOW THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH BRINGS HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST 90 KT IN
48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 12.1N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 12.5N 128.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 13.3N 130.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 14.3N 132.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 15.1N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 17.0N 141.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 17.5N 145.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART