000
WTPZ43 KNHC 050230
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...VISIBLE AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
CLOUD PATTERN DOES STILL SHOW SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT...WHICH IS ON THE
LOW END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO
BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS
COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7
KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
INDUCED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 12.0N 127.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 12.2N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 12.8N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 14.2N 133.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 15.5N 136.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI