000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040239
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
 
STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM
GIL...APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE LOPSIDED
ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 30 AND 35
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 30 KT.  

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY INDUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  PERHAPS REFLECTING THIS SHEAR FORECAST...THE BULK OF
THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 48-72H WHILE THE WATERS REMAIN WARM.  GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT INEXPLICABLE STRUGGLES OF GIL IN THIS SAME AREA...I AM NOT
ABOUT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE YET...BUT
WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS
ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT
LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BEYOND 48H...AND ON THE LOW END
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9.  A WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE AFTER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...WHICH CAUSES THE
TRACK GUIDANCE TO FAN OUT NOTICEABLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 12.7N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE