000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032031
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT THE WINDS REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE
STABLE AIR.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE SHOULD
WEAKEN AND A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN. THE
GFS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MOVING WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 12.9N 123.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 12.7N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 12.5N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 12.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 13.0N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA