000
WTPZ43 KNHC 031456
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS
CONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION
IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE
LOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE
SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY
ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.     
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA