000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271440
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013

COSME HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
22-23C.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.  BARRING AN UNEXPECTED RETURN OF THE CONVECTION...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY DECAYS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT
120 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW
THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 20.4N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN