000
WTPZ43 KNHC 252051
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS
FORMED...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY ONLY PERIODICALLY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE.  CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND SUGGEST A RANGE OF 65 TO 77 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...COSME JOGGED BACK TO THE LEFT SOME AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 295/15.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  AS COSME GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SPEED AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG BY THE MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE
12 AND 24 HOUR POINTS AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK THEREAFTER.  THIS
FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.

WHILE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OCCURRING NOW AND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...
COSME INSTEAD WILL LIKELY BE PEAKING SHORTLY IN INTENSITY DUE TO
ITS TRAVERSING RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS.  ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...COSME SHOULD PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND REACH
SUB-22C SSTS BY THURSDAY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
PEAKING SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY RATHER QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO RATHER
HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS.  THE PREDICTION ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...BUT THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR
SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSEST TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDED BY TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 17.9N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA