000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250237
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER-CORE BANDING STRUCTURE OF
COSME HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
A BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER. 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT. 
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR 
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MUCH COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
DSHP AND LGEM MODELS...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE WEAKER LGEM FORECAST
AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  COSME
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/12...ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS...COSME SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
REMAIN ON THAT HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF COSME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 15.9N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 16.7N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 17.4N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 18.7N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0000Z 20.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH