000
WTPZ43 KNHC 242033
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
THE CENTER OF COSME IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...AND THERE IS NOW A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 310/12...AS THE
CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO TRACK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...COSME
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHILE IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 15.0N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN