000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231448
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013
 
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL
AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30
KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN
THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR
WHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND
BE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5
DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME
A SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE