000
WTPZ43 KNHC 211434
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB. 
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM
TODAY...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY.  THE SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN
36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT IS OTHERWISE
SIMILAR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 20.6N 111.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 112.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.1N 113.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 114.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN