000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210834
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL SHAPELESS AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND
DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DEPRESSION BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 20.4N 110.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.7N 111.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 20.9N 112.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 20.9N 113.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI