000
WTPZ43 KNHC 202033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS
THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN PULSING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT REMAIN RATHER SHAPELESS.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM SAB.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO REMAIN 20 KT OR HIGHER OVER
THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY 36 HOURS.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN
36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 3 DAYS.
 
THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO FOLLOW ON GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS 305/08.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  BY SUNDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A SHALLOW
FEATURE AND WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 20.1N 109.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN