000
WTPZ43 KNHC 211445
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
 
THERE HAS BEEN SOME MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF BLAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
A LITTLE WEAKER.  BY THE END OF THE DAY... BLAS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT.  A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF BLAS IS LIKELY UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.  

BLAS REMAINS ON TRACK... NOW MOVING 270/11.  A WEST OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION SEEMS PROBABLE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 120.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N 122.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.4N 125.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 127.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE