000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210833
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

A FEW HOURS AGO...SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY
REMAINS NEAR 30 KT.  BLAS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IS
NOT LIKELY TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MORE THAN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 275/11.  BLAS REMAINS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SO A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 18.0N 117.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.1N 118.8W    25 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 121.1W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N 123.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.4N 125.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH