000
WTPZ43 KNHC 202032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010
 
VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BLAS. 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW CELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE CIRCULATION.  LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM TAFB
AND SAB SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP
WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM TONIGHT...OVERALL THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS BLAS BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR
SOONER THAN THAT.

THE FORWARD MOTION IS NEAR 285/11.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW ON
A MAINLY WESTWARD OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL THE
CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 17.9N 114.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.1N 116.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 18.2N 118.4W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH