000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200240 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010 ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS CIRCULAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE CI-NUMBER FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 3.5/55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT...CONSISTENT WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM TRMM...AMSR-E...AND AMSU CONFIRM THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT BLAS SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES STEADILY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND BLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE. BLAS IS NOW FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 4 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD TAKE BLAS ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...BLAS...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST INFLUENCED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.0N 111.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.2N 112.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.4N 114.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 116.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 25/0000Z 16.0N 130.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN