000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING...AND BEYOND THAT TIME IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/6. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP BLAS ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...BLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.3N 108.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 109.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.8N 111.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.0N 112.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 114.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN