000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032030
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009
 
THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OLAF IS DISPLACED ABOUT 180 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF SONORA
AND SINALOA. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE...BUT LA PAZ RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28 KT
AND A 1406 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE STILL NEAR
30 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.
NOW THAT ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND OLAF SHOULD BE A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY
36 HOURS ONCE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DECOUPLED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER AND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 095/13...LIKELY DUE TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN BAJA COAST.  THIS
FLOW SHOULD LESSEN AS THE CENTER GETS CLOSER TO LAND...AND THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. NEITHER THE DYNAMICAL NOR THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS HAVE
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE RECENT EASTWARD MOTION...AND THE RESULTING
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL SOUTH OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSER
TO CLIPER.

RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 23.8N 113.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 24.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG