000
WTPZ43 KNHC 031437
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009
 
OLAF IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A
130-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 30-KT OBSERVATION FROM
SHIP 3EUS AT 1000 UTC. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING
TO AROUND 40 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM ANY REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...OLAF SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF OLAF IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 075/07. THIS PLACES THE CENTER WELL SOUTHEAST OF
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION. THE
NEW TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF AND IS SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
TAKING OLAF TOO FAR NORTHWARD GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.

RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 24.2N 115.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 24.7N 114.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 25.6N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN