000
WTPZ43 KNHC 041432
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009
 
JIMENA HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND
0600 UTC...AND IF IT DOES NOT RETURN SOON...JIMENA WILL BE DECLARED
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SLOW DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST...270/02. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE
CENTER BACK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 27.7N 111.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.7N 111.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 27.5N 112.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 27.3N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 27.4N 114.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN