000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040246
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
 
JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND BASED ON A
DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 35-KT
TROPICAL STORM.  MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER OF JIMENA REMAINS OVER THE
WARM WATER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IT COULD REMAIN A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM LONGER SHOWN BELOW.
 
THE TRACK MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO
COMMENCE VERY SOON...WHICH WOULD TAKE JIMENA BACK OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT...BUT DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT THAT HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
NHC ADVISORY.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 27.5N 111.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 27.3N 111.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.1N 112.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 26.8N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 26.5N 113.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN