000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032056
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE EXPOSED CENTER OF JIMENA OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  ALL OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED EAST
OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR.  AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 1640 UTC SHOWED A COUPLE OF 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE WINDS HAVE LIKELY CONTINUED TO
DECREASE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT.  
JIMENA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND
DETERIORATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND STRONG SHEAR.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST
OR SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TOTAL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.
 
THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 27.8N 112.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N 112.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN