000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021456 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA IS OVER LAND. HOWEVER...EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE VORTEX WAS TILTED WITH HEIGHT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THERE ARE NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO PINPOINT THE SURFACE CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER HAS PASSED NEAR OR OVER CABO SAN LAZARO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/11. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS JIMENA TURNING WESTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHEAR IT APART. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH JIMENA OR ITS REMNANTS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND LBAR MODELS ARE OUTLIERS IN SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN...A POSSIBILITY THAT IS NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS TIME. JIMENA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST IS WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR. EVEN IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE FORECAST SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION. INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 25.2N 112.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 26.4N 112.7W 75 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1200Z 27.4N 113.3W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0000Z 27.8N 113.8W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1200Z 27.8N 114.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN