000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300859
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
 
THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA HAS REAPPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN FACT...THE TINY EYE HAS WARMED A
LITTLE AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THESE VERY
RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY YIELD DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AROUND T5.5...WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 100 KT.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS JIMENA
WILL TRAVERSE VERY WARM SSTS AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND SHOWS
JIMENA REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK IT COULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND A LITTLE STRONGER. 
ALTHOUGH...THIS IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  ALL IN ALL...THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF JIMENA IN THE 3-5 DAY
TIME FRAME.
 
JIMENA IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 305/10.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WHICH SHOULD
STEER JIMENA NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE UPPER-LOW STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPART A FASTER NORTHERN
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TAKING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  MEANWHILE...THE UKMET AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE LOW
AND BUILD IN THE RIDGE...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD
COURSE.  OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
ONCE AGAIN AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION.  HOWEVER....THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.  A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 16.0N 105.7W   100 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 16.8N 106.8W   110 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.9N 107.9W   125 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 19.2N 108.9W   125 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W   120 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 24.5N 111.9W   100 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W    65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N 115.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN