000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061441 TCDEP3 HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009 CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED IN THE EYEWALL OF FELICIA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS ALSO COOLED AT THE SAME TIME. OVERALL...THE CHANGES HAVE BEEN PRETTY SMALL WITH THE HURRICANE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED AND SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...FELICIA IS DEMONSTRATING SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WHICH COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER MARGINAL SSTS. FOR THESE REASONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR DISSIPATED...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE ESTIMATED MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS IS 305/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...RIDGING CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN OF FELICIA. ASIDE FROM THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH HAS A STRANGE INITIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN FELICIA AND ENRIQUE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. IN THE LONGER-RANGE...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.0N 131.9W 120 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.8N 133.0W 115 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.9N 134.6W 105 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 136.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.6N 139.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 19.7N 150.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BLAKE