000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050845 TCDEP3 HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T4.5 AND T4.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE EYE HAS NOW PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUES TO WARM WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLES. AN ANALYSIS WOULD NOW YIELD A AVERAGE DATA T-NUMBER OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 90 KT. NOW THAT FELICIA IS A DEEPER SYSTEM...IT IS BEING PULLED A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS HEADING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... TWO FACTORS WILL CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN TO THE WEST. FIRST...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII. SECOND...FELICIA WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME AND WILL BE INFLUENCED MORE STRONGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA IS INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF FELICIA...AND IT APPEARS THAT AN OUTFLOW JET MAY BE FORMING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST PUTS FELICIA OVER 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS BY SHOWING FASTER WEAKENING THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF FELICIA STAYS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 13.4N 128.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 14.1N 129.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.1N 131.2W 105 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 132.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.1N 134.6W 90 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 19.0N 144.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 19.0N 150.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG