000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040240 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009 CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 AND 1.5... RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ONLY ABOUT 500-600 NM WEST OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...HOWEVER THE CYCLONES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING EACH OTHER...AND THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ANY INTERACTION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK OVER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SSTS OF 28-29C AND SHEAR OF 10 KT OR LESS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY SHOWING WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES SHOW A 35 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 11.9N 122.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 12.6N 124.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 13.6N 125.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 14.8N 127.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 15.9N 129.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN