000
WTPZ43 KNHC 061238
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED.  RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
BOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E
IMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  HOWEVER... BLANCA SHOULD
REACH SUB-26C IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/9.  MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA ON A
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1230Z 17.1N 111.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN