000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040236 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008 700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WE HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THOSE ESTIMATES AT 35 KT. AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/12. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS DOES THE SPLIT IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL INSISTING THAT A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THESE MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT TAKES A WEAKER...SHALLOWER CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM CONSENSUS...INCREASING THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BY 24 HOURS AND HOLDING IT THERE THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF POLO WERE TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. POLO REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 20 NM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 9.5N 115.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 9.9N 117.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 10.7N 119.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 11.4N 120.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 11.9N 122.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 12.5N 125.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 13.0N 128.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 13.5N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN