000
WTPZ43 KNHC 110231
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH LOWELL TONIGHT.  THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A LARGE FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONE...OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER
SKELETAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN
ADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD HELP FINISH OFF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF LOWELL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
LOWELL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
045/7...THOUGH THIS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EITHER NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...ASSUMING IT REMAINS A COHERENT SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TOTALLY DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER...IT IS POSSIBLE LOWELL COULD TAKE A RIGHT TURN AND BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL.
 
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF LOWELL STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IS LOW...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL LOWELL PASSES.  THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 23.1N 111.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 24.2N 110.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N 109.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB