000
WTPZ43 KNHC 102033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
200 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
LOWELL IS A PERSISTENT CYCLONE AS IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  A 1342 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAINS NEAR 30 KT SO THIS WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. LOWELL WILL BE
CROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND LAND
INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY CAUSE LOWELL TO WEAKEN.  IN
FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION RESULTING IN DEGENERATION INTO A
REMNANT LOW.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF LOWELL WILL BE
MOVING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WHERE THE TERRAIN IS QUITE HIGH. 
REGARDLESS OF LOWELL'S STATUS AT THAT TIME...MOISTURE FROM THE
SYSTEM COULD GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  
 
LOWELL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
035/06.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. 

ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF LOWELL STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IS LOW...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL LOWELL PASSES. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 22.8N 111.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 23.8N 111.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 25.4N 110.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 27.4N 109.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME