000
WTPZ43 KNHC 101447
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
LOWELL'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE...AND
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER SLOPPY LOOKING SYSTEM.   
HOWEVER...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT
DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT
30 KT.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN
12-24 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE
BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LOWELL TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. 
 
LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING THE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY.  THEREAFTER...WHAT'S LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LOWELL WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...ESPECIALLY NEAR MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 22.3N 112.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N 111.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 24.3N 110.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N 109.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N 109.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME