000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100852 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008 LOWELL HAS BEEN PRODUCED SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT EACH BURST HAS BEEN SMALLER IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION. IN FACT...THE CYCLONE BECAME CONVECTION FREE FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND 0500 UTC. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL. THE ASCAT DATA REVEALED 25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT... WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOWELL COULD REGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE OVER SSTS OF 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS. ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24-36 HOURS...THEN INTO MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AND IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. SINCE LOWELL HAS BECOME A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT LOWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 23.8N 111.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 110.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0600Z 26.7N 110.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 109.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN