000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092040 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008 LOWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT OF WHICH BEGAN AROUND 1400 UTC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT SINCE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...INDICATIVE OF STABLE AIR...TO THE WEST OF LOWELL. THIS...COUPLED WITH SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AS TO WHETHER LOWELL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LOWELL WEAKENING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES STILL INDICATE A 26 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LOWELL WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AFTER CROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHAT'S LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THAT LONG. LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT A 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE YIELDS 320/03. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IN FACT...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST A NORTHWARD MOTION MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE FASTEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE UKMET...ACTUALLY SHOWS LOWELL REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 20.9N 113.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.7N 113.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 22.8N 112.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 23.9N 111.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 110.6W 25 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W 20 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME