000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080857
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2008
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LOWELL CONTINUES TO CONSIST OF A LARGE BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES. AN 0146
UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED SOME BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WIND
VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT
20-25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER LOWELL. THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL ONLY DECREASE A
LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
SINCE BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE NEGATIVE...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF. 

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT LOWELL 
CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWELL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. 
THE NEW FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...DUE TO THE
CURRENT MOTION.  THEREAFTER...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN LOWELL TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 
THE MODELS THAT MAINTAIN LOWELL AS A STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM
MOVE THE STORM MUCH FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE MODELS THAT
WEAKEN LOWELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF
A WEAKER LOWELL AND SHOWS THE STORM SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE
BAJA PENINSULA.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 18.2N 110.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 111.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 113.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 20.9N 113.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.9N 114.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W    40 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 24.2N 112.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N 110.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN