000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260236
TCDEP3
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008
 
AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 2111Z HELPS PLACE THE CENTER OF
GENEVIEVE PRETTY MUCH IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH TO MY EYE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER...AS IT HAS BEEN AT TIMES.  NO EYE IS
APPARENT IN EITHER VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING NO
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT IS NEAR 60
KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 65.  TONIGHT IS LIKELY THE LAST
CHANCE FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL SOON
OVERTAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SSTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SHARPLY
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A SHIPS/LGEM
BLEND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF GENEVIEVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE LATTER FEATURE IS
LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
GENEVIEVE TO MAINTAIN A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DECAYS INTO A SHALLOW VORTEX IN THREE DAYS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A SHADE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE
HWRF AND GFDL ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
MARK THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 16.9N 118.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.3N 119.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.8N 122.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.6N 126.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN